Next Man City Manager Odds
The Citizens are wrapping up their worst Premier League season in nine years. Since Guardiola took over, the team has never finished below third place. But ever since December, the football world has been buzzing about Pep’s potential sacking — and yet, it still hasn’t happened.
Next Man City Manager (16.08.25)
Will the Spaniard stay at City next season? Let’s take a look at what the bookmakers think — and who’s being tipped as his potential successor.
Man City Next Manager – Betting Odds
City currently sit fourth in the Premier League and, according to OPTA’s predictions, are expected to finish there. The minimum objective — qualifying for the Champions League — is practically secured. So it’s no surprise that the odds on Pep staying are so short.
Next Man City Manager Odds: Top 5 Contenders
The probability of Guardiola leaving is so low that most bookmakers aren’t even offering odds on his departure. Still, certain circumstances remain that could eventually lead to his resignation.
Pep Guardiola – the Most Likely, but Least Profitable Option
City are ending their dreadful season on a high note. Since early March, they’ve suffered just one defeat. The team’s inconsistency was perhaps only evident in a recent goalless draw against Premier League bottom-dwellers Southampton (0–0).
The worst seems to be behind them. Marmoush has slotted in perfectly, Rodri is expected back from injury soon, and — let’s be honest — is there anyone who doubts that City will splash the cash again this summer? Why change the manager now — the same manager who was trusted through the darkest moments and even signed a contract extension through 2027 last November? That was right in the middle of a disastrous run when the team collected just six points from thirteen matches.
Of course, unforeseen factors still exist. Take, for example, the divorce that many believe triggered Pep’s breakdown — and, by extension, the team’s collapse. The bald genius has openly admitted he’s tired and thinking about stepping away. He recently reiterated it in an interview with ESPN:
Pep has now been at City longer than he stayed at either Barça or Bayern. He’s won everything there is to win, and it’s fair to wonder whether the spark and motivation are still there. But let’s be honest: when the odds are this short — whether for a manager to stay or to go — the bookies haven’t been wrong once in the past five years.
Michel and Vincent Kompany: A Young Coach for a New Chapter
Kompany is a Manchester City legend, and he would be a popular choice among the club’s supporters if he were asked to replace Guardiola. He did secure the Bundesliga title for Bayern, finally breaking Kane's curse. And he proved that he knows how to manage big teams.
However, he’s the least suited to be a crisis manager among the top 5 candidates. After playing with Burnley in the yo-yo league, he’s shown that he struggles to pull teams out of a slump. And getting knocked out of the Champions League at the quarter-final stage is clearly not the kind of result Bayern are used to — nor one Manchester City would be satisfied with.
As for Michel, like Kompany, he’s a great fit for the role of a young coach who can lead the team through a rebuild following Walker’s departure — and likely the exit of several other aging stars like De Bruyne, Ederson, and Grealish.
City is one of the most suitable clubs for Spanish managers—at least from a player perspective. Silva, Rodri, and Ferran Torres can certainly attest to that. Perhaps this is also why two of the main favorites for the role are Spanish.
Michel, the coach from Girona, has led clubs from the Segunda to La Liga three times. He focuses on attack and possession. Last season in La Liga, only Real Madrid scored more goals than his teams. And Dovbyk became the league’s top scorer under his guidance. Furthermore, Michel knows how to integrate young players into the squad, which is a crucial skill given City’s recent signings.
Finally, Girona is part of the City Football Group network, making deals between the two clubs easier to arrange (Savinho, for example, moved to the Etihad Stadium from Girona last summer).
Roberto De Zerbi and Xabi Alonso: The Go-To Names Out of Habit
Guardiola has openly expressed his admiration for Roberto De Zerbi, who led Brighton to a sixth-place finish in the 2022-23 Premier League season. He’s the only one among the top 5 (apart from Guardiola himself) who has had positive Premier League experience.
City has already had a successful history with Italians —think Mancini, not Balotelli. And De Zerbi won’t disappoint the fans who are accustomed to attacking football. His Brighton team was fourth in goals scored, outpacing both Manchester United and Newcastle. Now, his current Marseille side sits second in Ligue 1, trailing only PSG in goals scored.
But will the City owners really trust a manager who has never coached a team full of stars — let alone a true superclub?
Everyone’s written about Alonso's achievements in the Bundesliga, but what’s more important for City is that Alonso is well-suited to the role of a crisis manager. When he took over Bayer in the fall of 2022, the team was 17th and in the relegation zone. Under his leadership, they climbed to 6th place, and the following season, they won the league.
But offering a bet on him after his farewell to Leverkusen and a 99% chance of joining Real — and at such a laughable price — is just plain dirty.
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